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Antwerp 2–2 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Thu, Dec 26, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win39%2.46
Genk win33%2.98
Draw28%3.40

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk βˆ’0.2554%1.79
Antwerp βˆ’0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.88
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Gyrano Kerk · Antwerp
12'⚽Tolu Arokodare · Genk
32'⚽Gyrano Kerk · Antwerp
51'⚽Tolu Arokodare · Genk
62'🟨Ken Nkuba · Genk
83'🟨Zeno Van Den Bosch · Antwerp
90'🟨Kobe Corbanie · Antwerp

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
9Shots29
3On target11
5Corners9
13Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.29
box share (last 5)0.580.70
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
coach days178.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
208.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.973.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.07
dominance (last 5)0.590.50
elo1637.381677.13
elo momentum (last 5)-23.50-6.63
eye test v10.370.35
eye trend v10.29-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)64.7067.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.780.67
league points32.0044.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0087.60
possession avg (last 5)59.2059.20
rest days4.804.00
scorer concentration0.240.33
season ppg1.522.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.6014.80
skill v10.781.31
solidity v1-0.38-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
squad ageβ€”25.21
state index0.250.22
sterile dominance v10.540.87
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.471.33
xg for avg (last 5)1.291.76