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Standard 0–1 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win39%2.49
Standard win32%3.03
Draw29%3.26

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard +0.2554%1.79
Gent +0.2546%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Aiden O'Neill · Standard
33'🟨Marko Bulat · Standard
46'🟨Franck Surdez · Gent
60'🟨Léandre Kuavita · Standard
82'⚽Franck Surdez · Gent
90'🟨Max Dean · Gent
90'🟨Davy Roef · Gent

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots20
0On target9
4Corners8
11Fouls11
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.36
box share (last 5)0.820.66
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
coach days356.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Maurice Dufrasne
174.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.943.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.410.49
elo1484.201668.27
elo momentum (last 5)10.98-8.29
eye test v1-0.020.54
eye trend v1-0.14-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)57.9058.50
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.71—
league points28.0033.00
league rank9.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)38.2054.60
rest days8.002.79
scorer concentration0.500.19
season ppg1.331.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.4014.40
skill v1-1.170.40
solidity v1-0.34-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.20
squad age24.8925.13
state index-0.090.13
sterile dominance v1-1.290.13
threat rate (last 10)0.300.27
threat rate (last 3)0.370.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.611.35
xg for avg (last 5)1.231.81