← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 65% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.03 | fair |
| Westerlo win | 15% | 12% | 6.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Westerlo −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.47 |
| Under | 35% | 2.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Sinan Bolat · Westerlo |
| 16' | 🟨 | Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · St. Gilloise |
| 40' | ⚽ | Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luka Vušković · Westerlo |
| 45' | ⚽ | Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise |
| 50' | 🟨 | Alfie Devine · Westerlo |
| 52' | ⚽ | Franjo Ivanović · St. Gilloise |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jordan Bos · Westerlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 10 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 15 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Gilloise | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Joseph Mariën |
| coach days | 167.00 | 228.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1764.58 | 1545.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.38 | 3.82 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| league points | 26.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 6.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.58 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 23.78 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 2.09 |