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Anderlecht 2–1 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Dec 8, 05:30 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win74%1.29
Draw16%6.10
Beerschot VA win9%11.16

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht βˆ’1.552%1.87
Beerschot VA βˆ’1.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.53
Under38%2.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Marwan Alsahafi · Beerschot VA
25'🟨Faisal Al-Ghamdi · Beerschot VA
30'🟨Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA
45'🟨Antoine Colassin · Beerschot VA
45'⚽Yari Verschaeren · Anderlecht
56'🟨Nick Shinton · Beerschot VA
64'🟨Colin Dagba · Beerschot VA
82'🟨Welat Cagro · Beerschot VA
84'🟨Zanka · Anderlecht
84'🟨Charly Keita · Beerschot VA
90'⚽

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots10
6On target5
7Corners2
5Fouls17
1Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.44
box share (last 5)0.540.49
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
coach days98.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueLotto Park
Anders Dreyer
Β· Anderlecht
342.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.762.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.48
elo1720.891357.15
elo momentum (last 5)32.2431.68
eye test v10.700.24
eye trend v10.100.52
first sub minute (last 10)58.2052.60
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)2.101.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.840.76
league points29.0012.00
league rank5.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)60.0049.80
rest days7.107.10
scorer concentration0.290.29
season ppg1.530.67
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6012.60
skill v11.19-0.01
solidity v11.11-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.003.50
sot for avg (last 3)7.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.80
squad age28.61β€”
state index1.18-0.40
sterile dominance v11.140.03
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.821.67
xg for avg (last 5)1.731.34