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Antwerp 1–3 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win51%1.90
Draw26%3.72
Charleroi win23%4.38

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp −0.552%1.88
Charleroi −0.548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Nikola Štulić · Charleroi
9'🟨Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
21'🟨Nikola Štulić · Charleroi
49'⚽Stelios Andreou · Charleroi
54'⚽Nikola Štulić · Charleroi
58'🟨Toby Alderweireld · Antwerp
88'🟨Mohamed Koné · Charleroi
90'⚽ (pen)Tjaronn Chery · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots17
8On target7
7Corners5
8Fouls6
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.25
box share (last 5)0.580.64
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
coach days160.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
282.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.02
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.510.56
elo1648.171485.67
elo momentum (last 5)-12.47-43.60
eye test v10.140.00
eye trend v10.390.10
first sub minute (last 10)68.2057.10
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.840.74
league points28.0019.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0077.80
possession avg (last 5)57.2055.80
rest days6.797.70
scorer concentration0.250.38
season ppg1.561.06
shot diff avg (last 5)1.403.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.2015.80
skill v10.730.30
solidity v1-0.02-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
state index0.43-0.70
sterile dominance v10.53-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.230.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.34
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.241.39
xg for avg (last 5)1.461.40