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Gent 2–0 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sat, Dec 7, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win56%1.70
Draw24%4.00
St Truiden win20%4.93

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent βˆ’0.7551%1.90
St Truiden βˆ’0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Atsuki Ito · Gent
22'🟨Joel Chima Fujita · St Truiden
29'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
41'🟨Hugo Gambor · Gent
41'🟨Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden
74'🟨Atsuki Ito · Gent
83'🟨Sven Kums · Gent
90'🟨Archie Brown · Gent
90'🟨Rihito Yamamoto · St Truiden
90'⚽Max Dean · Gent

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots14
3On target3
5Corners10
12Fouls7
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.28
box share (last 5)0.560.56
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
coach days159.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venuePlanet Group Arena
97.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.432.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.16
dominance (last 5)0.440.50
elo1673.571521.27
elo momentum (last 5)-32.01-18.02
eye test v11.110.48
eye trend v10.12-0.49
first sub minute (last 10)57.2054.60
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.003.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.600.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.730.61
league points29.0021.00
league rank5.0011.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8081.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2043.40
rest days6.066.30
scorer concentration0.170.47
season ppg1.611.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6015.40
skill v10.230.22
solidity v1-1.22-1.13
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.105.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.804.60
squad age25.13β€”
state index0.08-0.84
sterile dominance v1-0.18-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.240.35
threat rate (last 3)0.260.34
threat rate (last 5)0.300.36
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.771.55
xg for avg (last 5)1.751.74