← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Bourdeaud'hui
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 67% | 75% | 1.42 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.76 | fair |
| Kortrijk win | 13% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk −1.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Genk −1.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk |
| 4' | ⚽ | Gilles Dewaele · Kortrijk |
| 23' | 🟨 | Carlos Cuesta · Genk |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mujaid Sadick · Genk |
| 41' | ⚽ | Patrik Hrošovský · Genk |
| 43' | 🟨 | Bram Lagae · Kortrijk |
| 47' | ⚽ | Patrik Hrošovský · Genk |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hendrik Van Crombrugge · Genk |
| 54' | 🟨 | Billal Messaoudi · Kortrijk |
| 68' | ⚽ | Noah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk |
| 76' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Cegeka Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thierry Ambrose · Kortrijk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 189.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1700.51 | 1452.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.72 | 7.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 38.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | -0.79 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.07 | 25.37 |
| state index | 1.05 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.03 |