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Genk 3–2 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Bourdeaud'hui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win67%1.42
Draw20%4.76
Kortrijk win13%8.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk −1.2550%1.94
Genk −1.2550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Zakaria El Ouahdi · Genk
4'⚽Gilles Dewaele · Kortrijk
23'🟨Carlos Cuesta · Genk
28'🟨Mujaid Sadick · Genk
41'⚽Patrik Hrošovský · Genk
43'🟨Bram Lagae · Kortrijk
47'⚽Patrik Hrošovský · Genk
54'🟨Hendrik Van Crombrugge · Genk
54'🟨Billal Messaoudi · Kortrijk
68'⚽Noah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk
76'🟨Nacho Ferri

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots16
6On target4
1Corners8
12Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
box share (last 5)0.700.67
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
coach days189.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCegeka Arena
· Kortrijk
90'⚽Thierry Ambrose · Kortrijk
6.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.041.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.13
dominance (last 5)0.610.39
elo1680.821420.99
elo momentum (last 5)20.715.94
eye test v10.43-0.48
eye trend v1-0.550.42
first sub minute (last 10)67.5055.50
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.690.63
league points38.0018.00
league rank2.0016.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0076.60
possession avg (last 5)61.8037.80
rest days6.107.80
scorer concentration0.360.42
season ppg2.111.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.80-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)17.409.20
skill v11.32-0.83
solidity v10.24-1.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.302.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age25.21—
state index1.01-0.65
sterile dominance v10.77-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.321.68
xg for avg (last 5)1.651.03