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Westerlo 2–2 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 06:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Bourdeaud'hui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win43%2.26
Gent win32%3.06
Draw25%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent −0.2551%1.91
Westerlo −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.59
Under40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Arthur Piedfort · Westerlo
-5'🟨Tiago Araújo · Gent
15'⚽Matija Frigan · Westerlo
42'⚽ (pen)Max Dean · Gent
47'⚽Momodou Sonko · Gent
49'🟨Emin Bayram · Westerlo
59'🟨Andrew Hjulsager · Gent
62'🟨Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo
77'🟨Max Dean · Gent
81'🟨Luka Vušković · Westerlo
86'⚽Allahyar Sayyadmanesh

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
20Shots16
7On target6
7Corners4
6Fouls9
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.49
box share (last 5)0.610.52
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
coach days214.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
· Westerlo
153.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.633.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.09
dominance (last 5)0.490.42
elo1509.701676.56
elo momentum (last 5)-11.68-36.39
eye test v11.210.91
eye trend v10.020.59
first sub minute (last 10)63.5056.50
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.60
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.790.63
league points22.0028.00
league rank10.006.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4082.40
possession avg (last 5)49.0054.00
rest days7.002.93
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg1.291.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.8010.60
skill v10.370.22
solidity v1-0.82-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)7.337.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.806.60
squad age—25.13
state index0.08-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.670.32
threat rate (last 10)0.340.24
threat rate (last 3)0.310.29
threat rate (last 5)0.330.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.061.38
xg for avg (last 5)2.011.39