← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 50% | 66% | 1.91 | value: +25% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.88 | fair |
| Beerschot VA win | 24% | 13% | 4.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge +0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Beerschot VA +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.76 |
| Under | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Kakou · Club Brugge |
| 36' | ⚽ | Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Omar Fayed · Beerschot VA |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge |
| 52' | 🟨 | Colin Dagba · Beerschot VA |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ewan Henderson · Beerschot VA |
| 65' | 🟨 | Thibaud Verlinden · Beerschot VA |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge |
| 79' | 🟥 | Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge |
| 81' | ⚽ | Loïc Mbe Soh · Beerschot VA |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beerschot VA | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Olympisch Stadion |
| ⚽ |
| Antoine Colassin · Beerschot VA |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 335.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1386.66 | 1678.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.56 | 8.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| league points | 9.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 0.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -1.57 |
| solidity v1 | -1.38 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.39 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 0.91 |