← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 45% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +15% |
| Kortrijk win | 29% | 22% | 3.46 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mechelen +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Kortrijk +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Dion De Neve · Kortrijk |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk |
| 51' | 🟨 | Bram Lagae · Kortrijk |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benito Raman · Mechelen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Daam Foulon · Mechelen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomoki Takamine · Kortrijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk |
| 90' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Mechelen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kortrijk | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Guldensporenstadion |
| coach days | 333.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1430.63 | 1656.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.88 | 13.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 15.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 5.06 | 5.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 1.13 |
| solidity v1 | -1.64 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 26.85 |
| state index | -0.98 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.94 |