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Westerlo 4–0 Kortrijk

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Nov 24, 06:15 PM UTC Β· ref: W. Smet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo win54%1.75
Draw24%4.00
Kortrijk win22%4.57

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk βˆ’0.7550%1.92
Westerlo βˆ’0.7550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo
44'🟨Serhiy Sydorchuk · Westerlo
49'⚽Alfie Devine · Westerlo
70'⚽Alfie Devine · Westerlo
74'⚽Griffin Yow · Westerlo
90'⚽Jordan Bos · Westerlo

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots8
9On target2
8Corners6
12Fouls8
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloKortrijk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.38
box share (last 5)0.600.71
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
coach days207.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
328.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.781.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.37
elo1498.461410.91
elo momentum (last 5)-12.823.97
eye test v11.08-0.53
eye trend v1-0.000.33
first sub minute (last 10)61.9054.70
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
keeper form v10.760.63
league points19.0015.00
league rank12.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0076.80
possession avg (last 5)52.6034.40
rest days14.9415.14
scorer concentration0.250.33
season ppg1.190.94
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.609.00
skill v10.41-1.01
solidity v1-1.03-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.502.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.803.20
state index-0.26-0.71
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.320.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.23
threat rate (last 5)0.320.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.40
xg against avg (last 5)2.081.66
xg for avg (last 5)1.670.97