← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 50% | 39% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +8% |
| Gent win | 25% | 32% | 3.95 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gent −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Anderlecht −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.75 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Gent |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mats Rits · Anderlecht |
| 38' | ⚽ | Samuel Edozie · Anderlecht |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Gent |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent |
| 43' | 🟥 | Jordan Torunarigha · Gent |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht |
| 68' | 🟨 | Matisse Samoise · Gent |
| 75' | 🟥 | Matisse Samoise · Gent |
| 77' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht |
| 85' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Anderlecht | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Lotto Park |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Tiago Araújo · Anderlecht |
| 88' | ⚽ | Francis Amuzu · Anderlecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 84.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1742.75 | 1738.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.46 | -10.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.21 | 14.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 24.44 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.27 |