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Anderlecht 6–0 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win50%1.93
Draw26%3.75
Gent win25%3.95

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent −0.550%1.93
Anderlecht −0.550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.75
Under44%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
23'⚽Mats Rits · Anderlecht
38'⚽Samuel Edozie · Anderlecht
43'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
43'🟨Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent
43'🟥Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
45'⚽Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht
68'🟨Matisse Samoise · Gent
75'🟥Matisse Samoise · Gent
77'⚽Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht
85'⚽ (og)Tiago Araújo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
18Shots6
11On target4
3Corners5
7Fouls17
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnderlechtGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.39
box share (last 5)0.640.56
cards avg (last 5)1.200.80
coach days84.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLotto Park
· Anderlecht
88'⚽Francis Amuzu · Anderlecht
146.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.230.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.803.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.03
dominance (last 5)0.540.44
elo1708.321716.48
elo momentum (last 5)15.05-11.06
eye test v10.460.34
eye trend v1-0.270.70
first sub minute (last 10)55.9058.30
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.64
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.840.65
league points24.0028.00
league rank7.005.00
matches since blank11.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)62.6052.80
rest days14.2114.10
scorer concentration0.260.18
season ppg1.501.75
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0012.20
skill v11.380.35
solidity v10.570.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.677.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.60
squad age28.6125.13
state index1.030.45
sterile dominance v11.310.44
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.111.18
xg for avg (last 5)1.831.27