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Mechelen 3–0 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win66%1.43
Draw20%4.95
Beerschot VA win14%6.87

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −1.2550%1.94
Beerschot VA −1.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Omar Fayed · Beerschot VA
21'🟨Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
23'🟨Zinho Vanheusden · Mechelen
35'🟨Nikola Storm · Mechelen
41'⚽Ahmed Touba · Mechelen
48'🟨Bilal Bafdili · Mechelen
71'⚽Benito Raman · Mechelen
90'⚽Patrick Pflücke · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots16
10On target3
5Corners5
8Fouls13
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.45
box share (last 5)0.680.53
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
coach days389.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
328.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.231.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.560.35
elo1610.861346.28
elo momentum (last 5)39.3332.25
eye test v10.87-0.44
eye trend v1-0.420.56
first sub minute (last 10)45.5051.50
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.040.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.600.70
keeper form v10.730.79
league points25.009.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2074.20
possession avg (last 5)61.4039.80
rest days15.7013.76
scorer concentration0.160.36
season ppg1.560.56
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-9.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.608.60
skill v11.53-0.95
solidity v10.84-1.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.007.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.60
state index1.02-0.65
sterile dominance v11.11-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.230.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.021.74
xg for avg (last 5)2.070.95