← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 60% | 64% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Charleroi win | 17% | 14% | 5.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Genk −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | 🟨 | Nikolas Sattlberger · Genk |
| 54' | 🟨 | Aiham Ousou · Charleroi |
| 64' | 🟨 | Daan Heymans · Charleroi |
| 77' | ⚽ | Tolu Arokodare · Genk |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jarne Steuckers · Genk |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adem Zorgane · Charleroi |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Adedeji-Sternberg · Genk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Cegeka Arena |
| coach days | 175.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1695.61 | 1530.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.31 | -43.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.83 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| league points | 34.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 13.09 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.73 | 0.45 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.25 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.19 |