← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp win | 63% | 67% | 1.54 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Dender win | 16% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Dender −1 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.77 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Karol Fila · Dender |
| 6' | 🟨 | Andreas Verstraeten · Antwerp |
| 39' | 🟨 | Vincent Janssen · Antwerp |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ayrton Costa · Antwerp |
| 55' | 🟨 | Karol Fila · Dender |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mohamed Berte · Dender |
| 80' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · Antwerp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Goncalves · Dender |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Antwerp | Dender |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Bosuilstadion |
| coach days | 144.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1694.17 | 1482.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.95 | -16.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| league points | 27.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 13.20 | 13.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 29.73 | — |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.78 |