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Gent 5–0 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Nov 10, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win53%1.83
Draw26%3.80
Standard win21%4.54

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent βˆ’0.553%1.83
Standard βˆ’0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent
11'🟨Sotiris Alexandropoulos · Standard
41'⚽Max Dean · Gent
51'⚽Archie Brown · Gent
59'⚽Max Dean · Gent
89'⚽Gilles De Meyer · Gent

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
22Shots6
12On target5
10Corners3
11Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.33
box share (last 5)0.640.63
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
coach days132.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venuePlanet Group Arena
314.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.593.19
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.17
dominance (last 5)0.370.53
elo1710.161479.55
elo momentum (last 5)-15.66-2.21
eye test v1-0.350.33
eye trend v1-0.090.68
first sub minute (last 10)59.1055.40
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.780.73
league points25.0021.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4079.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0047.40
rest days2.898.00
scorer concentration0.240.40
season ppg1.671.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.801.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.8014.20
skill v10.180.12
solidity v10.46-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
squad age25.1324.89
state index0.40-0.40
sterile dominance v10.79-0.54
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.190.30
threat rate (last 5)0.190.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.231.37
xg for avg (last 5)0.921.53