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Club Brugge 0–5 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Clerkx

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win41%2.38
Club Brugge win33%3.04
Draw26%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge +0.2552%1.85
Anderlecht +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht
27'🟨Moussa Ndiaye · Anderlecht
54'🟨Yari Verschaeren · Anderlecht
62'⚽ (pen)Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht
72'⚽Theo Leoni · Anderlecht
75'⚽Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht
82'🟥Ibrahim Diakité · Club Brugge
83'🟨Mario Stroeykens · Anderlecht
90'🟨Maxime Delanghe · Club Brugge
90'⚽Luis Vázquez · Anderlecht

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots10
3On target5
5Corners3
9Fouls15
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.740.54
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
coach days801.0070.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.15
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.392.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.590.58
elo1622.861688.66
elo momentum (last 5)53.82-9.02
eye test v1-0.270.65
eye trend v1-0.18-0.48
first sub minute (last 10)49.7056.50
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35—
keeper form v1—0.81
league points37.0021.00
league rank1.007.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.0087.60
possession avg (last 5)44.2064.00
rest days2.692.69
scorer concentration0.440.20
season ppg1.421.40
shot diff avg (last 5)3.804.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.2015.40
skill v1-1.281.39
solidity v10.810.52
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
squad age22.9228.61
state index0.900.38
sterile dominance v1-0.831.14
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.271.21
xg for avg (last 5)1.241.63