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Kortrijk 1–2 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp win45%2.24
Kortrijk win28%3.75
Draw26%3.80

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp +0.2550%1.94
Kortrijk +0.2550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Vincent Janssen · Antwerp
50'⚽Zeno Van Den Bosch · Antwerp
56'⚽ (og)Zeno Van Den Bosch · Kortrijk
70'🟨Rosen Bozhinov · Antwerp
84'🟨Nacho Ferri · Kortrijk
87'🟨Brecht Dejaegere · Kortrijk
90'🟨Nayel Mehssatou · Kortrijk
90'🟨Milan Smits · Antwerp

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots13
5On target7
7Corners4
9Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.24
box share (last 5)0.660.66
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
coach days313.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
131.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.006.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.833.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.05
dominance (last 5)0.300.40
elo1416.161655.63
elo momentum (last 5)5.600.88
eye test v1-0.98-0.37
eye trend v10.09-0.52
first sub minute (last 10)55.1068.40
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.620.85
league points15.0024.00
league rank15.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6081.00
possession avg (last 5)36.8051.20
rest days5.906.10
scorer concentration0.330.29
season ppg1.001.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.40-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.0010.80
skill v1-0.980.32
solidity v1-1.270.66
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
state index-0.720.30
sterile dominance v1-0.290.37
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.920.98
xg for avg (last 5)0.771.44