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St Truiden 2–1 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden win39%2.50
Mechelen win34%2.85
Draw26%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −0.2554%1.80
St Truiden −0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.58
Under40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽ (og)Aziz Ouattara Mohammed · St Truiden
23'🟨Toon Raemaekers · Mechelen
54'⚽Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden
74'⚽Benito Raman · Mechelen
77'🟨José Marsà · Mechelen
83'🟨Louis Patris · St Truiden
90'🟨Léo Kokubo · St Truiden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots7
5On target2
10Corners2
6Fouls6
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt TruidenMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.41
box share (last 5)0.580.71
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
coach days68.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDaio Wasabi Stayen Stadium
373.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.602.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.520.62
elo1528.991621.80
elo momentum (last 5)2.9936.79
eye test v11.051.21
eye trend v10.24-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)60.6042.70
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.003.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.403.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.852.04
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.720.71
league points17.0025.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank9.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6084.80
possession avg (last 5)48.4058.20
rest days6.206.00
scorer concentration0.440.17
season ppg1.211.67
shot diff avg (last 5)2.406.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.8015.00
skill v10.571.33
solidity v1-0.200.86
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.006.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.806.40
state index0.151.04
sterile dominance v1-1.050.45
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.390.27
threat rate (last 5)0.380.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.521.12
xg for avg (last 5)2.152.12