← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 42% | 60% | 2.30 | value: +37% ⚠ |
| Charleroi win | 31% | 16% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Club Brugge −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Etienne Camara · Charleroi |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alan Minda · Club Brugge |
| 62' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Kakou · Club Brugge |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge |
| 72' | ⚽ | Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge |
| 82' | 🟨 | Edgaras Utkus · Club Brugge |
| 86' | 🟨 | Adem Zorgane · Charleroi |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antoine Bernier · Charleroi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Jan Breydelstadion |
| coach days | 794.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1683.67 | 1527.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.17 | -51.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| league points | 34.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 0.91 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.92 | 26.20 |
| state index | 0.60 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.16 |