⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mechelen 1–1 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win47%2.15
Mechelen win28%3.90
Draw26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise +0.2551%1.88
Mechelen +0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽ (pen)Promise David · St. Gilloise
25'🟨Ousseynou Niang · St. Gilloise
33'🟨Lazare Amani · St. Gilloise
42'🟨Ahmed Touba · Mechelen
46'🟨José Marsà · Mechelen
77'🟨Christian Burgess · St. Gilloise
89'🟨Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
90'🟨Anthony Moris · St. Gilloise
90'🟨Kamiel Van de Perre · St. Gilloise
90'⚽Ahmed Touba · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots8
3On target2
8Corners6
10Fouls17
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenSt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.31
box share (last 5)0.680.72
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
coach days367.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
124.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.620.66
elo1621.541690.65
elo momentum (last 5)44.00-35.48
eye test v11.180.27
eye trend v1-0.03-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)42.7063.90
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.040.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.760.74
league points24.0016.00
league rank3.0012.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8077.60
possession avg (last 5)55.8048.00
rest days7.156.06
scorer concentration0.170.30
season ppg1.711.23
shot diff avg (last 5)5.807.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.6016.40
skill v10.940.14
solidity v11.010.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)6.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)7.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.604.60
state index1.38-0.06
sterile dominance v10.21-0.82
threat rate (last 10)0.280.34
threat rate (last 3)0.290.32
threat rate (last 5)0.280.34
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.921.53
xg for avg (last 5)1.991.30