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Standard 2–1 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard win41%2.41
St Truiden win30%3.22
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden −0.2553%1.84
Standard −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'⚽Andi Zeqiri · Standard
44'🟨Rein Van Helden · St Truiden
45'⚽ (pen)Andi Zeqiri · Standard
70'⚽Olivier Dumont · St Truiden
80'🟨Billal Brahimi · St Truiden
83'🟨Marlon Fossey · Standard
90'🟨Isaías Delpupo · St Truiden
90'🟨Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots17
4On target5
3Corners4
6Fouls13
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStandardSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
coach days306.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Maurice Dufrasne
62.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.06
dominance (last 5)0.510.52
elo1469.261539.28
elo momentum (last 5)-7.3024.40
eye test v10.091.48
eye trend v10.670.75
first sub minute (last 10)54.3063.00
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.730.74
league points18.0017.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)45.8047.00
rest days6.006.84
scorer concentration—0.47
season ppg1.291.31
shot diff avg (last 5)0.602.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6018.40
skill v1-0.340.50
solidity v1-0.550.31
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.337.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.407.00
squad age24.89—
state index-0.350.37
sterile dominance v1-0.73-1.32
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.350.49
threat rate (last 5)0.310.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.521.31
xg for avg (last 5)1.292.29