← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 41% | 40% | 2.41 | fair |
| St Truiden win | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St Truiden −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Standard −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Andi Zeqiri · Standard |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rein Van Helden · St Truiden |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Andi Zeqiri · Standard |
| 70' | ⚽ | Olivier Dumont · St Truiden |
| 80' | 🟨 | Billal Brahimi · St Truiden |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marlon Fossey · Standard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaías Delpupo · St Truiden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Maurice Dufrasne |
| coach days | 306.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1502.99 | 1568.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.76 | 27.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 1.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.84 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 23.76 | 25.58 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 2.29 |