⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Kortrijk 1–0 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Fri, Oct 25, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: L. Visser

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kortrijk win53%1.85
Draw25%3.79
Beerschot VA win22%4.66

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA βˆ’0.7551%1.90
Kortrijk βˆ’0.7549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA
60'🟨Brian Plat · Beerschot VA
62'⚽Abdoulaye Sissako · Kortrijk
85'🟨Thierry Ambrose · Kortrijk
85'🟨Omar Fayed · Beerschot VA
90'🟨Welat Cagro · Beerschot VA

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots11
7On target4
1Corners1
8Fouls3
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKortrijkBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.26
box share (last 5)0.600.49
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
coach days298.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueGuldensporenstadion
298.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.80-5.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.009.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.310.35
elo1415.051331.56
elo momentum (last 5)9.563.23
eye test v1-1.22-1.18
eye trend v1-0.04-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)56.3045.80
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
keeper form v10.570.77
league points12.006.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.0010.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0075.00
possession avg (last 5)37.0039.00
rest days5.067.00
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg0.920.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.20-10.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.6011.60
skill v1-1.27-1.14
solidity v1-1.11-2.48
sot against avg (last 5)5.409.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.002.20
state index-0.57-1.02
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.992.05
xg for avg (last 5)0.660.63