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Beerschot VA 2–1 Anderlecht

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Fri, Oct 18, 06:45 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Bourdeaud'hui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Anderlecht win63%1.50
Draw21%4.53
Beerschot VA win16%6.45

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA +1.2554%1.79
Anderlecht +1.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.56
Under39%2.47

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Marwan Alsahafi · Beerschot VA
48'🟨Colin Dagba · Beerschot VA
50'⚽ (pen)Kasper Dolberg · Anderlecht
51'🟨Brian Plat · Beerschot VA
70'⚽Marwan Alsahafi · Beerschot VA
86'🟨Ayouba Kosiah · Beerschot VA
90'🟨Marwan Alsahafi · Beerschot VA

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots26
2On target8
4Corners9
16Fouls2
4Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeerschot VAAnderlecht
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.42
box share (last 5)0.420.54
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
coach days291.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueOlympisch Stadion
47.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.181.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.390.53
elo1314.021715.21
elo momentum (last 5)-20.9013.23
eye test v1-0.960.30
eye trend v1-0.00-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)48.0057.50
form points (last 5)1.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.03
h2 goals (last 10)β€”0.50
keeper form v10.75β€”
league points3.0018.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win19.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4085.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6054.40
rest days14.0012.30
scorer concentration0.290.17
season ppg0.271.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8015.00
skill v1-0.640.69
solidity v1-2.440.48
sot against avg (last 5)8.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.705.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
squad ageβ€”28.61
state index-1.930.88
sterile dominance v10.010.67
threat rate (last 10)0.180.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.20
xg against avg (last 5)2.161.26
xg for avg (last 5)0.701.15