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Club Brugge 1–1 St Truiden

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 29, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: W. Smet

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win49%1.96
Draw27%3.68
St Truiden win25%3.85

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden −0.551%1.92
Club Brugge −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.81
Under46%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Jo Coppens · St Truiden
34'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
68'🟨Adriano Bertaccini · St Truiden
87'🟨Senna Miangue · Club Brugge
89'⚽Andrés Ferrari · St Truiden
90'🟨Billal Brahimi · St Truiden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots9
2On target1
9Corners7
4Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeSt Truiden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
box share (last 5)0.710.66
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
coach days759.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
28.00
congestion 21d6.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.622.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.07
dominance (last 5)0.650.39
elo1576.841526.00
elo momentum (last 5)1.6634.91
eye test v1-0.70-0.27
eye trend v1-0.100.62
first sub minute (last 10)42.7066.80
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.731.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.90—
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
keeper form v1—0.76
league points19.0012.00
league rank3.0013.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)63.0081.60
possession avg (last 5)40.0048.20
rest days1.948.14
scorer concentration0.400.30
season ppg1.121.33
shot diff avg (last 5)8.60-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.0010.40
skill v1-1.640.00
solidity v1-1.900.47
sot against avg (last 5)7.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
squad age22.92—
state index0.050.22
sterile dominance v1-1.320.40
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)2.371.11
xg for avg (last 5)0.981.09