⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Genk 2–1 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win68%1.39
Draw18%5.37
Mechelen win14%7.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen −1.552%1.85
Genk −1.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over69%1.38
Under31%3.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Aziz Ouattara Mohammed · Mechelen
45'🟨Patrick Pflücke · Mechelen
57'🟨Mujaid Sadick · Genk
60'⚽Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
76'⚽ (pen)Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk
86'🟨Rafik Belghali · Mechelen
90'🟨Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk
90'⚽Hyeon-gyu Oh · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots14
4On target6
6Corners6
6Fouls8
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.58
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.49
box share (last 5)0.720.67
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
coach days119.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCegeka Arena
332.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.008.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.383.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.620.45
elo1664.171577.54
elo momentum (last 5)50.7422.32
eye test v12.380.98
eye trend v10.760.07
first sub minute (last 10)62.8049.80
form points (last 5)15.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.51
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.760.75
league points22.0012.00
league rank1.009.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)56.4047.80
rest days5.906.00
scorer concentration0.380.30
season ppg2.201.33
shot diff avg (last 5)8.00-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)19.4013.40
skill v11.870.40
solidity v10.84-0.91
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.805.50
sot for avg (last 3)11.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)9.006.20
squad age25.21—
state index1.280.33
sterile dominance v10.01-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.400.22
threat rate (last 5)0.340.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.021.98
xg for avg (last 5)2.911.88