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Club Brugge 2–1 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Thu, Sep 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Boterberg

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win44%2.17
Club Brugge win28%3.39
Draw27%3.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent +0.2552%1.88
Club Brugge +0.2548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.76
Under46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Atsuki Ito · Gent
15'🟨Stefan Mitrović · Gent
35'🟨Flávio Nazinho · Club Brugge
36'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
63'🟨Christiaan Ravych · Club Brugge
77'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
90'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
90'⚽Noah Fadiga · Gent

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots6
5On target2
6Corners5
12Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeGent
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
box share (last 5)0.700.76
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
coach days756.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
87.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.20
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.407.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.05
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1562.661742.73
elo momentum (last 5)-29.8340.82
eye test v1-0.260.49
eye trend v1-0.150.50
first sub minute (last 10)41.6058.40
form points (last 5)3.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.751.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.70—
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.670.86
league points15.0016.00
league rank3.002.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)41.4047.60
rest days4.204.30
scorer concentration0.250.25
season ppg1.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.2013.20
skill v1-1.090.23
solidity v1-2.33-1.27
sot against avg (last 5)7.207.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.20
squad age22.9225.13
state index-0.391.08
sterile dominance v1-1.25-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.32
threat rate (last 5)0.300.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00
xg against avg (last 5)2.501.84
xg for avg (last 5)1.311.84