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Club Brugge 2–3 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win41%2.45
Club Brugge win34%3.00
Draw25%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge +0.2551%1.90
Genk +0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.55
Under38%2.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Yira Collins Sor · Genk
13'⚽Abdoul Kader Ouattara · Club Brugge
17'⚽Jarne Steuckers · Genk
20'⚽Christiaan Ravych · Club Brugge
55'⚽Tolu Arokodare · Genk
90'🟨Joris Kayembe · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
10Shots24
2On target12
6Corners6
10Fouls9
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)0.401.00
coach days744.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
105.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.693.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.59
elo1585.801623.91
elo momentum (last 5)-5.33-2.64
eye test v10.440.99
eye trend v10.310.36
first sub minute (last 10)46.1058.20
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.791.43
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.69—
league points12.0013.00
league rank3.002.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2087.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4060.20
rest days13.1014.80
scorer concentration0.330.57
season ppg1.091.86
shot diff avg (last 5)4.604.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.4015.80
skill v1-0.291.61
solidity v1-1.510.15
sot against avg (last 5)6.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.60
squad age22.9225.21
state index0.190.36
sterile dominance v1-0.910.88
threat rate (last 10)0.310.24
threat rate (last 3)0.350.25
threat rate (last 5)0.320.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)2.101.12
xg for avg (last 5)1.682.13