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Gent 1–1 Antwerp

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win38%2.51
Antwerp win35%2.78
Draw27%3.57

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent +053%1.85
Antwerp +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.15

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Sven Kums · Gent
30'⚽Tjaronn Chery · Antwerp
33'🟨Sven Kums · Gent
45'🟨Jordan Torunarigha · Gent
48'🟨Denis Odoi · Antwerp
57'🟨Ayrton Costa · Antwerp
75'🟨Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent
87'🟨Kobe Corbanie · Antwerp
90'🟨Stefan MitroviΔ‡ Β· Gent

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots15
8On target10
1Corners5
18Fouls10
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentAntwerp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.28
box share (last 5)0.690.64
cards avg (last 5)0.602.00
coach days62.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venuePlanet Group Arena
62.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.404.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.408.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.223.19
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.08
dominance (last 5)β€”0.53
elo1706.371620.81
elo momentum (last 5)11.68-29.70
eye test v1-0.390.94
eye trend v1-0.15-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)62.3060.80
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.411.89
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.830.72
league points6.006.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6084.60
possession avg (last 5)58.6051.00
rest days3.927.80
scorer concentration0.170.38
season ppg1.501.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”1.60
shots for avg (last 5)β€”14.40
skill v10.400.91
solidity v10.04-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.20
squad age25.13β€”
state index0.87-0.13
sterile dominance v10.88-0.66
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.210.38
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.191.23
xg for avg (last 5)1.171.98