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Mechelen 5–2 Charleroi

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi win38%2.60
Mechelen win35%2.84
Draw27%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Charleroi +053%1.83
Mechelen +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.77
Under45%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
15'🟨Cheick Keita · Charleroi
22'🟨Stelios Andreou · Charleroi
33'⚽ (pen)Daan Heymans · Charleroi
38'🟨Jeremy Petris · Charleroi
39'⚽ (pen)Kerim Mrabti · Mechelen
40'⚽Parfait Guiagon · Charleroi
45'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
57'⚽Rob Schoofs · Mechelen
79'⚽Benito Raman · Mechelen
85'🟨Elton Yeboah

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score2
11Shots25
7On target6
0Corners7
9Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenCharleroi
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.31
box share (last 5)0.530.63
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
coach days304.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
· Mechelen
183.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.991.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.60
elo1558.161547.83
elo momentum (last 5)-11.0427.39
eye test v1-0.040.04
eye trend v1-0.19-0.61
first sub minute (last 10)47.4052.40
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.34
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.740.75
league points6.009.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6079.60
possession avg (last 5)50.2051.80
rest days6.805.86
scorer concentration—0.60
season ppg1.001.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.803.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.40
skill v10.300.26
solidity v1-1.291.13
sot against avg (last 5)6.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.505.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
state index-0.160.60
sterile dominance v10.290.05
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.951.02
xg for avg (last 5)1.201.43