← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 18, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 49% | 67% | 2.00 | value: +35% ⚠ |
| Westerlo win | 27% | 14% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gent −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Tuur Rommens · Westerlo |
| 27' | ⚽ | Pieter Gerkens · Gent |
| 29' | ⚽ | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Gent |
| 32' | ⚽ | Omri Gandelman · Gent |
| 41' | ⚽ | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Gent |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mathias Delorge · Gent |
| 82' | 🟨 | Omri Gandelman · Gent |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gent | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Planet Group Arena |
| coach days | 48.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1685.33 | 1587.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.72 | 88.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 2.95 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 23.90 | 24.24 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 2.32 |