← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sun, Aug 11, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: N. Verboomen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge win | 64% | 78% | 1.50 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.80 | fair |
| Beerschot VA win | 16% | 8% | 5.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Beerschot VA −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Club Brugge −1.25 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.56 |
| Under | 39% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Bruno Goncalves De Jesus · Club Brugge |
| 22' | ⚽ | Kazeem Olaigbe · Club Brugge |
| 25' | ⚽ | Simion Michez · Beerschot VA |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kazeem Olaigbe · Club Brugge |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tom Reyners · Beerschot VA |
| 85' | 🟨 | Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA |
| 89' | ⚽ | Abdoul Kader Ouattara · Club Brugge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erick Nunes · Club Brugge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Brugge | Beerschot VA |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Jan Breydelstadion |
| coach days | 710.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1696.39 | 1398.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -59.59 | -6.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -1.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 0.24 | 8.94 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | -0.40 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 24.22 | 26.20 |
| state index | -0.46 | -1.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.30 |