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Club Brugge 4–1 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 Β· Sun, Aug 11, 05:15 PM UTC Β· ref: N. Verboomen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Brugge win64%1.50
Draw20%4.80
Beerschot VA win16%5.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA βˆ’1.2553%1.85
Club Brugge βˆ’1.2547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.56
Under39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Bruno Goncalves De Jesus · Club Brugge
22'⚽Kazeem Olaigbe · Club Brugge
25'⚽Simion Michez · Beerschot VA
42'⚽Kévin Denkey · Club Brugge
45'🟨Kazeem Olaigbe · Club Brugge
66'🟨Tom Reyners · Beerschot VA
85'🟨Apostolos Konstantopoulos · Beerschot VA
89'⚽Abdoul Kader Ouattara · Club Brugge
90'🟨Erick Nunes · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
22Shots4
8On target3
8Corners1
8Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub BruggeBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.29
box share (last 5)0.690.58
cards avg (last 5)1.200.80
coach days710.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueJan Breydelstadion
223.00
congestion 21d8.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.04β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80β€”
corners against avg (last 5)4.60β€”
corners for avg (last 5)8.40β€”
corners volatility (last 10)3.751.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.20β€”
dominance (last 5)0.65β€”
elo1564.641350.52
elo momentum (last 5)-42.67-3.95
eye test v1-0.63-1.64
eye trend v1-0.22-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)59.6058.20
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.82
keeper form v10.68β€”
league points1.002.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4045.00
rest days0.248.94
season ppg0.200.67
shot diff avg (last 5)9.20β€”
shots for avg (last 5)19.20β€”
skill v1-1.07-0.86
solidity v1-0.36-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.802.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.331.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.601.80
squad age22.92β€”
state index-0.57-1.55
sterile dominance v1-0.630.81
threat rate (last 10)0.270.18
threat rate (last 3)0.250.09
threat rate (last 5)0.250.12
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.501.16
xg for avg (last 5)1.170.30