← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 10, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Gilloise win | 50% | 59% | 1.99 | value: +18% |
| Westerlo win | 25% | 20% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo +0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| St. Gilloise +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Lucas Stassin · Westerlo |
| 5' | ⚽ | Kevin Rodriguez · St. Gilloise |
| 14' | ⚽ | Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo |
| 17' | ⚽ | Adedire Mebude · Westerlo |
| 32' | ⚽ | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo |
| 39' | 🟨 | Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise |
| 45' | 🟨 | Fedde Leysen · St. Gilloise |
| 49' | 🟨 | Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tuur Rommens · Westerlo |
| 70' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Westerlo | St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Het Kuipje |
| ⚽ |
| Mohammed Fuseini · St. Gilloise |
| 75' | 🟨 | Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thomas Van den Keybus · Westerlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Casper Terho · St. Gilloise |
| 90' | ⚽ | Promise David · St. Gilloise |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 101.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1572.35 | 1816.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.38 | 14.29 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 71.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.61 | 25.34 |
| state index | 0.71 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.53 |