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Westerlo 4–3 St. Gilloise

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 10, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Vergoote

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Gilloise win50%1.99
Westerlo win25%4.00
Draw25%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo +0.552%1.89
St. Gilloise +0.548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Lucas Stassin · Westerlo
5'⚽Kevin Rodriguez · St. Gilloise
14'⚽Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo
17'⚽Adedire Mebude · Westerlo
32'⚽Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo
39'🟨Anan Khalaili · St. Gilloise
45'🟨Fedde Leysen · St. Gilloise
49'🟨Allahyar Sayyadmanesh · Westerlo
54'⚽Bryan Reynolds · Westerlo
58'🟨Tuur Rommens · Westerlo
70'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
24Shots14
9On target7
5Corners6
11Fouls15
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWesterloSt. Gilloise
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.36
box share (last 5)0.650.73
cards avg (last 5)0.600.80
coach days101.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHet Kuipje
Mohammed Fuseini
· St. Gilloise
75'🟨Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo
87'🟨Thomas Van den Keybus · Westerlo
90'🟨Casper Terho · St. Gilloise
90'⚽Promise David · St. Gilloise
40.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.702.58
elo1521.361774.08
elo momentum (last 5)66.4415.33
eye test v10.980.56
eye trend v10.07-0.49
first sub minute (last 10)56.7071.00
form points (last 5)12.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.32
keeper form v10.600.68
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6053.00
rest days7.097.90
scorer concentration0.33—
season ppg3.002.00
skill v10.460.30
solidity v1-0.361.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.606.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.40
state index0.821.09
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.340.32
threat rate (last 3)0.350.28
threat rate (last 5)0.340.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.771.03
xg for avg (last 5)1.911.53