← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mechelen win | 44% | 48% | 2.37 | value: +14% |
| Westerlo win | 31% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mechelen −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Madsen · Westerlo |
| 36' | ⚽ | Luka Vušković · Westerlo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bas Van den Eynden · Mechelen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nikola Storm · Mechelen |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bilal Bafdili · Mechelen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Serhiy Sydorchuk · Westerlo |
| 79' | ⚽ | Josimar Alcócer · Westerlo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rob Schoofs · Mechelen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Patrick Pflücke · Mechelen |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 🟨 |
| Lion Lauberbach · Mechelen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sinan Bolat · Westerlo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matija Frigan · Westerlo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matija Frigan · Westerlo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 276.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1622.92 | 1551.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.61 | 64.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.80 | 5.86 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 24.06 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.80 |