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Mechelen 2–4 Westerlo

← Jupiler Pro League 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Van Driessche

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win44%2.37
Westerlo win31%3.50
Draw26%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Westerlo −0.2553%1.83
Mechelen −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.67
Under42%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (pen)Nicolas Madsen · Westerlo
36'⚽Luka Vušković · Westerlo
45'🟨Bas Van den Eynden · Mechelen
65'⚽Nikola Storm · Mechelen
75'🟨Bilal Bafdili · Mechelen
77'🟨Serhiy Sydorchuk · Westerlo
79'⚽Josimar Alcócer · Westerlo
81'🟨Rob Schoofs · Mechelen
83'🟨Haspolat Dogucan · Westerlo
88'⚽ (pen)Patrick Pflücke · Mechelen
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
12Shots14
4On target9
8Corners4
14Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMechelenWesterlo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.35
box share (last 5)0.570.64
cards avg (last 5)0.400.00
coach days276.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAFAS Stadion
Lion Lauberbach
· Mechelen
90'🟨Sinan Bolat · Westerlo
90'🟨Matija Frigan · Westerlo
90'⚽Matija Frigan · Westerlo
94.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.203.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.607.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.502.81
elo1576.201500.79
elo momentum (last 5)21.6746.21
eye test v10.560.82
eye trend v10.07-0.48
first sub minute (last 10)59.5058.30
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.49
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.690.60
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8080.40
possession avg (last 5)52.6050.00
rest days7.805.86
season ppg1.003.00
skill v10.670.48
solidity v1-0.08-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.60
state index0.410.59
sterile dominance v10.65-0.57
threat rate (last 10)0.260.33
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.401.91
xg for avg (last 5)1.301.80