← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 12:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Montpellier win | 32% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Montpellier +0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| ES Troyes AC +0.25 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.83 |
| Under | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.