← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Jan 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Roffet
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Montpellier win | 39% | 2.30 |
| Guingamp win | 32% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Guingamp −0.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Montpellier −0.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand