← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 58% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.60 |
| Bastia win | 17% | 5.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jeremy Sebas · Bastia |
| 24' | ⚽ | Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 32' | 🟨 | Felix Tomi · Bastia |
| 34' | ⚽ | Felix Tomi · Bastia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tom Ducrocq · Bastia |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kevin Pedro · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 56' | 🟨 | Noah Zilliox · Bastia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Zakaria Ariss · Bastia |
| 81' | ⚽ | Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 83' | 🟨 | Augustine Boakye · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 134.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1553.31 | 1359.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.11 | -41.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.33 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |