← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rodez win | 39% | 2.30 |
| Guingamp win | 34% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp −0.25 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Rodez −0.25 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Jérémy Hatchi · Guingamp |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jordan Mendes Correia · Rodez |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jérémy Hatchi · Guingamp |
| 33' | 🟥 | Jérémy Hatchi · Guingamp |
| 39' | ⚽ | Raphael Lipinski · Rodez |
| 63' | 🟨 | Clément Jolibois · Rodez |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Ibrahima Baldé · Rodez |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gauthier Ott · Guingamp |
| 86' | 🟨 | Octave Joly · Rodez |
| 86' | 🟨 | Amadou Sagna · Guingamp |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Stanislas Kielt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 23 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rodez | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Paul-Lignon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathis Saka · Rodez |
| coach days | 1107.00 | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1439.91 | 1457.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.76 | -4.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| league points | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |