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Laval 1–2 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Thierry Bouille, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win42%2.15
Draw31%2.88
Laval win27%3.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval +0.2551%1.88
Dunkerque +0.2549%1.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.48
Over36%2.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Joseph Samb · Laval
18'⚽Ethan Clavreul · Laval
33'🟨Yohan Tavares · Laval
35'⚽ (pen)Thomas Robinet · Dunkerque
44'🟨Yohan Tavares · Laval
44'🟥Yohan Tavares · Laval
50'🟨Geoffrey Kondo · Dunkerque
53'🟨Victor Mayela · Dunkerque
58'⚽Thomas Robinet · Dunkerque
87'🟨William Benard · Laval
90'🟨Malick Diop

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
4Shots10
3On target5
2Corners7
13Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.82
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis Le Basser
· Dunkerque
90'🟨Alex Daho · Dunkerque
coach days2356.00164.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.23
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.061.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.430.42
elo1413.941502.32
elo momentum (last 5)3.2331.52
eye test v1-0.80-0.21
eye trend v10.12-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)62.8060.60
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.81
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.690.73
league points15.0027.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2084.80
possession avg (last 5)41.0050.60
rest days3.976.00
scorer concentration0.330.27
season ppg0.881.59
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.807.60
skill v1-0.790.69
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
state index-0.630.33
sterile dominance v1-0.481.06
threat rate (last 10)0.200.18
threat rate (last 3)0.230.15
threat rate (last 5)0.240.15
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.60