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Annecy 1–2 Le Mans FC

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Azzedine Souifi, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Annecy win39%2.30
Draw31%2.90
Le Mans FC win30%3.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Mans FC −0.2553%1.78
Annecy −0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.53
Over39%2.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽ (pen)Antoine Rabillard · Le Mans FC
30'🟨Ben Touré · Annecy
32'🟨Samuel Yohou · Le Mans FC
52'⚽Antoine Larose · Annecy
61'⚽Samuel Yohou · Le Mans FC
78'🟨Clement Billemaz · Annecy
79'🟨Alexandre Lauray · Le Mans FC
89'🟨Izhak Hammoudi · Le Mans FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots7
2On target3
5Corners5
22Fouls20
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnnecyLe Mans FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.700.72
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueParc des Sports
coach days1686.00529.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.113.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.04
dominance (last 5)0.570.51
elo1475.101437.49
elo momentum (last 5)7.1125.24
eye test v1-0.38-0.83
eye trend v10.22-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)57.2056.00
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.800.67
league points22.0028.00
league rank11.005.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)46.8048.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.150.25
season ppg1.291.65
shot diff avg (last 5)2.800.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.408.40
skill v1-0.78-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
state index0.140.23
sterile dominance v1-0.430.55
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80