← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Nov 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.97 |
| Laval win | 27% | 3.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Laval −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Bastia −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.47 |
| Over | 35% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Julien Maggiotti · Laval |
| 20' | 🟨 | William Bianda · Laval |
| 27' | 🟨 | Noah Zilliox · Bastia |
| 39' | ⚽ | Joseph Samb · Laval |
| 42' | 🟨 | William Benard · Laval |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Malik Tchokounte · Laval |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tom Meynadier · Bastia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matteo Petrignani · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 23 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Laval |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Armand Cesari |
| coach days | 542.00 | 2339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1375.23 | 1406.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.09 | -16.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |