← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Azzedine Souifi, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.70 |
| Nancy win | 16% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nancy −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Maxence Carlier · Nancy |
| 21' | 🟨 | Rayan Bamba · Nancy |
| 27' | ⚽ | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Augustine Boakye · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Tardieu · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Brandon Bokangu · Nancy |
| 63' | 🟨 | Zakaria Ztouti · Nancy |
| 82' | 🟨 | João Ferreira · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 113.00 | 752.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1560.75 | 1312.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.85 | -23.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 29.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.18 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |