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Red Star 2–2 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win52%1.73
Draw28%3.25
Clermont win20%4.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont −0.7553%1.80
Red Star −0.7547%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.75
Over46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Damien Durand · Red Star
12'⚽Abdoul Kader Bamba · Clermont
24'⚽Abdoul Kader Bamba · Clermont
42'🟨Pierre Lemonnier · Red Star
52'🟨Giovanni Haag · Red Star
68'🟨Famara Diédhiou · Clermont
83'🟨Dembo Sylla · Red Star
86'⚽Pierre Lemonnier · Red Star
88'🟨Yoann Salmier · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots7
3On target3
2Corners3
18Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.720.59
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bauer
coach days509.00113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.513.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.490.44
elo1429.601405.52
elo momentum (last 5)22.301.49
eye test v1-0.53-0.62
eye trend v1-0.290.55
first sub minute (last 10)62.0046.00
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.800.69
league points27.0018.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6081.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4052.40
rest days14.0014.75
scorer concentration0.400.33
season ppg1.801.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.60
skill v10.640.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.00
state index-0.06-0.25
sterile dominance v10.640.60
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20