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Amiens 1–2 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 22, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Brendan Roffet, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win49%1.83
Draw27%3.25
Amiens win24%3.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +0.550%1.90
Amiens +0.550%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.83
Over48%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Teddy Averlant · Amiens
28'⚽ (pen)Louis Mafouta · Guingamp
33'⚽Louis Mafouta · Guingamp
36'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
44'🟨Rayan Lutin · Amiens
62'🟨Yvan Ikia Dimi · Amiens
71'🟨Sohaib Nair · Guingamp
87'🟨Ibrahim Fofana · Amiens
88'🟨Alpha Sissoko · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
14Shots17
4On target3
8Corners9
13Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.680.64
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
coach days113.00570.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.001.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.14
dominance (last 5)0.300.58
elo1376.691470.49
elo momentum (last 5)-25.03-6.25
eye test v1-0.01-0.44
eye trend v10.47-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)59.6064.20
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.670.58
league points15.0020.00
league rank16.0010.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4085.80
possession avg (last 5)46.4056.40
rest days14.7514.00
scorer concentration0.270.23
season ppg1.001.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.803.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.0011.00
skill v1-0.151.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.00
state index-1.07-0.09
sterile dominance v10.441.15
threat rate (last 10)0.170.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.170.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00