← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Geoffrey Kubler, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Mans FC win | 40% | 2.20 |
| Pau FC win | 31% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC +0.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Le Mans FC +0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Rayan Touzghar · Pau FC |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Jean Ruiz · Le Mans FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Omar Sissoko · Pau FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Steeve Beusnard · Pau FC |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Dame Gueye · Le Mans FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giovani Versini · Pau FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Antoine Rabillard · Le Mans FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Edwin Quarshie · Le Mans FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Izhak Hammoudi · Le Mans FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pau FC | Le Mans FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Nouste Camp |
| coach days | 112.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1428.47 | 1418.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.91 | 30.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 42.10 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 13.25 | 13.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |