⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Grenoble 2–1 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win39%2.40
Rodez win31%3.00
Draw29%3.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez −0.2553%1.78
Grenoble −0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.83
Over48%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Jessy Benet · Grenoble
27'⚽Nesta Elphege · Grenoble
47'🟨Loris Mouyokolo · Grenoble
56'🟨Mattheo Xantippe · Grenoble
59'🟨Nesta Elphege · Grenoble
61'⚽Clément Jolibois · Rodez
73'🟨Mathieu Mion · Grenoble
75'🟨Jean Lambert Evan's Allan · Rodez
86'🟨Mohamed Achi · Rodez
90'🟨Gaëtan Paquiez · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots14
6On target4
5Corners8
11Fouls10
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.640.67
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days
310.00
1072.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.002.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.14
dominance (last 5)0.380.42
elo1435.611439.98
elo momentum (last 5)23.60-12.12
eye test v10.22-0.05
eye trend v10.300.25
first sub minute (last 10)58.8063.00
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v10.760.74
league points14.0016.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.008.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)42.0039.00
rest days6.257.00
scorer concentration0.360.23
season ppg1.001.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.00-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.209.60
skill v1-0.27-1.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index-0.11-0.48
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.230.29
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40