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Clermont 2–1 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Mickael Leleu, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win48%1.95
Draw27%3.40
Amiens win25%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens −0.551%1.85
Clermont −0.549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.75
Over46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Amine Chabane · Amiens
41'🟨Yoann Salmier · Clermont
41'🟨Aboubacar Lô · Amiens
48'⚽Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
53'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
59'🟨Jan Mlakar · Amiens
89'🟨Coleen Louis · Amiens
89'🟨Siaka Bakayoko · Amiens
90'🟨Abdoul Kader Bamba · Clermont
90'⚽ (pen)Abdoul Kader Bamba · Clermont
90'⚽ (pen)Abdoul Kader Bamba · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots9
5On target4
11Corners4
12Fouls16
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.580.65
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days98.0098.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.602.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.122.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.430.27
elo1397.591384.62
elo momentum (last 5)-17.74-6.96
eye test v1-0.90-0.34
eye trend v10.420.53
first sub minute (last 10)41.7060.50
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.720.67
league points15.0015.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0080.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2049.20
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.330.29
season ppg1.071.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00-11.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.207.00
skill v10.420.17
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.60
state index-0.73-0.92
sterile dominance v10.600.92
threat rate (last 10)0.190.16
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.200.14
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20