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Amiens 2–3 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Thierry Bouille, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win39%2.40
Amiens win31%3.00
Draw29%3.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens +0.2553%1.78
Grenoble +0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.67
Over44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Mattheo Xantippe · Grenoble
33'⚽Nesta Elphege · Grenoble
59'⚽Siaka Bakayoko · Amiens
61'🟨Samba Diba · Grenoble
62'⚽Rayan Lutin · Amiens
63'🟨Theo Valls · Grenoble
65'🟨Jan Mlakar · Amiens
70'🟨Teddy Averlant · Amiens
73'🟨Mattheo Xantippe · Grenoble
79'⚽Yadaly Diaby · Grenoble
90'🟨Hianga'a M'Bock

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots18
8On target9
6Corners5
16Fouls27
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.560.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.600.59
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
· Grenoble
coach days92.00304.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.971.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.04
dominance (last 5)0.230.41
elo1395.511424.72
elo momentum (last 5)-8.5010.89
eye test v1-0.88-0.32
eye trend v10.430.23
first sub minute (last 10)64.3058.80
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.710.76
league points15.0011.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8080.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2045.20
rest days3.733.73
scorer concentration0.330.36
season ppg1.150.85
shot diff avg (last 5)-13.00-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)5.208.60
skill v10.05-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.602.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.60
state index-0.96-0.36
sterile dominance v10.990.33
threat rate (last 10)0.150.23
threat rate (last 3)0.110.21
threat rate (last 5)0.110.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80