⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Guingamp 2–0 Laval

← Ligue 2 2025-26 Β· Fri, Oct 31, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Faouzi Benchabane, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win54%1.73
Draw27%3.40
Laval win19%5.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp βˆ’0.554%1.75
Laval βˆ’0.546%2.05

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.62
Over42%2.25

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Amadou Sagna · Guingamp
38'⚽Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp
43'🟨Albin Demouchy · Guingamp
57'🟨William Bianda · Laval
81'🟨Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots13
4On target2
5Corners4
11Fouls21
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.610.58
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de Roudourou
coach days548.002314.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.02
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.344.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.08
dominance (last 5)0.620.44
elo1462.761421.46
elo momentum (last 5)-4.85-34.34
eye test v1-0.02-0.49
eye trend v1-0.53-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)62.2062.90
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.540.68
league points16.009.00
league rank10.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win4.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.8075.20
possession avg (last 5)57.6051.60
rest days2.982.98
scorer concentration0.220.43
season ppg1.230.82
shot diff avg (last 5)5.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.408.80
skill v11.33-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.60
state index-0.26-0.81
sterile dominance v11.010.69
threat rate (last 10)0.220.17
threat rate (last 3)0.190.14
threat rate (last 5)0.220.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20