← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Ahmed Taleb, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 55% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| Pau FC win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.75 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Pau FC −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | João Ferreira · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 11' | ⚽ | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 21' | 🟨 | Cheikh Fall · Pau FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Augustine Boakye · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Tardieu · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 44' | ⚽ | Joshua Duffus · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 48' | ⚽ | Joshua Duffus · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 79' | ⚽ | Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 89' | 🟥 | Setigui Karamoko · Pau FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 88.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1538.28 | 1434.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.61 | 13.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.06 | 4.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.67 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.38 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |